Careful polling analysis

There are polls popping up discussing Obama’s potential difficulties come 2012, and they’re being held up as victory flags in various corners, but read carefully:

Obama trails a generic Republican in election polling, NBC/WSJ finds: 40 percent said they would vote for Obama if the 2012 election were held today, while 44 percent said they would vote for a generic Republican. According toPolitico/GWU, 43 percent said they would definitely vote against Obama in 2012, while only 26 percent said they would definitely vote for him.

But what happens when you put Obama in specific matchups? He either wins

Obama tops Romney, 49-45, up from a 45-all tie in PPP’s August national poll.  He leads Rick Perry, 52-41 (49-43 in August); Newt Gingrich, 53-41; and Michele Bachmann, 53-39 (50-42).  Were voters given the choice to reconsider the 2008 election, they would still elect Obama, but by only five points (51-46), when he actually won by seven, indicating some voters have changed their minds, but that not just any GOP nominee will do.

Or if you’re Rasmussen, he’s in a statistical dead heat with Romney.

Remember, folks, Bush’s numbers were in the crapper in 2004 and he still managed to squeak out a victory. Put Obama up against any single GOP candidate and it’s going to end with another Obama victory. Rick Perry wrecked his candidacy by calling Social Security a ponzi scheme (remember that the elderly trend conservative and thus Republican), and Romney’s never going to have the backing of the base thanks to being a Massachusetts Republican.

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One response to “Careful polling analysis

  1. This is an unrelated comment….but this has bothered me. The resurgence of the Jackie O’ Kennedy tapes badmouthing Lady Bird Johnson and whatnot have been met with a bunch of, “What a brave role model for America” garbage. But I recall the first day this came out there was a quote from her about how she distained Martin Luther King Jr. But since then they have avoided the MLK reference all together…I can think of the reasons why they would try to keep that on the down low, but come on. How long can we defend the Kennedy’s? How many affairs, killing girlfriends (Ted), drug problems, bootlegging, racketeering, etc… can we ignore before someone has the balls to say, “Wait? These people are kind of assholes.”

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