Hanlon’s Razor

There’s a “new way” in Iraq. Why does this sound familiar…

July 10, 2007 · 3 Comments

Explosions in IraqEver get that feeling of deja vu when reading the news? I got hit with that when I caught a story this morning concerning a “new way” that’s predicted for Iraq. See if you get the same when you read this.

It will show “some of the benchmarks have been made, some of them haven’t” and will set off a debate that will result in “the beginning of a new way,” White House spokesman Tony Snow told CNN’s “American Morning” on Tuesday.

“What Congress will get this week is a snapshot of the beginning of the retooling of the mission in Iraq,” Snow said. “Everyone says, ‘We want to do it a different way.’ We agree. It’s just now started.”

Then he goes yammering on about why this is all for the best and whatnot. Now let’s ignore for the moment that there should not be a “retooling” in Iraq that’s “just now started” considering we’re over four years into the thing. This isn’t a “trial and error” situation, we can’t just keep trying things and hope something starts to work. The thing that got to me was that this isn’t the first time we’ve heard about a new strategy/plan/whatever. No, it’s not as good as the infamous Friedman Unit, but it’s close.

Take the language shortly before the surge. 01/10/2007:

Good evening. Tonight in Iraq, the Armed Forces of the United States are engaged in a struggle that will determine the direction of the global war on terror — and our safety here at home. The new strategy I outline tonight will change America’s course in Iraq, and help us succeed in the fight against terror.

I had figured that was our big new strategy, but then there was this from a little ways prior to the surge. 06/26/06

The Bush administration’s announcement on Tuesday that it will shift more forces to Baghdad is much more than a numbers game. It reflects a new strategy to reclaim control of the Iraqi capital and a new approach for deploying the troops.

The plan is to concentrate on specific neighborhoods rather than distribute the forces throughout the city, control movement in and out of sectors of the capital and try to sweep them of insurgents and violent militias.

Even before that, there was a new strategy to try out. Apparently that one didn’t work either. 12/04/05

For months, the military has been conducting raids in Anbar Province, the western desert region that has become a wellspring for the insurgency. But the taking of the youth center was one of the first steps in a new approach to taming the area: First sweep a town, then garrison it and begin reconstruction – a policy that President George W. Bush has called “clear, hold and build.” Just as important, Iraqi forces are an integral component of the strategy.

But, prior to that failed plan, there was another one to cart out. 04/25/05

A long-awaited strategic guidance document was issued to US military commanders in Iraq earlier this month, outlining specific milestones in the handover of the security mission to Iraqi security forces.

The strategic guidance shifts the main effort of coalition forces in Iraq from combat operations to partnering with Iraqi security forces.

I guess it goes without saying that said milestones ended up… unmet.

You can imagine that there are more than these stories, I just selected a handful of them. The president has wheeled out new strategies since pretty much the beginning. One fails, and then another comes swinging along. A question, though: didn’t everyone tell us that the surge needed six to nine months before we pass judgment? Weird that there’s already a new strategy coming if there’s still time for the surge.

Categories: iraq · war

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