Update on Iraq

The unsurprising part of this article is that people are dying and October has been surprisingly deadly for most all involved. The surprising part is that there’s a chance that Iraq could possibly “step up” within a year or two.

The top U.S. commander in Iraq said Tuesday that it will take another 12 to 18 months before Iraqi security forces are ready to take over in the country.

“We will continue to adjust our tactics to meet and stay ahead of conditions on the ground,” Gen. George W. Casey Jr. said.

Casey’s remarks came at a news conference with Zalmay Khalilzad, the U.S. ambassador in Iraq, as the United States reassesses its tactics and strategy in Iraq, where sectarian and insurgent violence persists.

Casey’s statement just brings me back to what the greater problem has been with Iraq, and specifically with our plan therein. At most every turn in the war, we’ve been given a pair of statements to deal with. The first is a phony timetable and the second is an incredibly vague description of what we’re doing.

What we get is someone (Casey, an Iraq minister, another military officer), saying that we’ll be out anywhere between six and 12 months, but we’re never given an indication of what’s changing that would lead us to believe that this will actually happen this time. If any of these predictions had come true, we’d be out of there ten times over by now.

This has been a war of vague promises from the get go, one with strategies that have been reactive rather than proactive. Consider all the times we’ve heard the following (all of these happening just recently:

As to Bush’s oft-repeated statement that U.S. troops will stand down as Iraqi ones stand up, Biden said, “The reason we cannot stand down is that they aren’t standing together. They’re killing each other.” – Joe Biden

The administration has long avoided posing any threats or deadlines, saying that U.S. troops would “stand down as the Iraqis stand up.” – Tony Snow

The president has long maintained that U.S. forces will stand down as the Iraqi government and its security forces stand up. It will be up to the Iraqis to secure the future of their country. – FOX News

We must continue to enable Iraqi security forces to fight terrorism. As these forces stand up, our troops can stand down. The political process must continue to mature. At the end of the day, the Iraqis must carry this burden. – George Allen

Just for starters. The basic idea is that we can just throw up our hands and say “hey, they aren’t standing up so we can’t go anywhere!” Those in support of this mantra would, somewhat correctly, point out that it’s the Iraqis responsibility to defend their nation and we can’t do it for them.

This is a good sentiment, and I agree that the Iraqs have to take the reigns of their nation, but if I can use an analogy what we’ve got here is a nation still in its diaper. We can’t expect to just rip off the diaper and leave the house and expect everything to work out. On the other hand, if we just sit around and wait for it to figure out how to use the toilet itself, we’re going to be waiting for a long time.

I don’t want a timetable, I don’t want an immediate pullout. What I want is some sense that there is an actual plan to get the Iraqis to stand up, not just sit back and wait for them so we can stand down. What I see now are the smallest of bones being thrown at the population to keep us quiet for a little while. The 12-18 number is thrown about simply to make both sides happy. Short enough that the opponents of the war won’t think we’re occupying, long enough that the supporters won’t think we’re leaving before the job’s done.

Or maybe that’s the idea. The administration wants to drag this out as long as possible (”for future presidents” anyone?), so every so often the bone is tossed to us, the dogs. The American public’s memory has become famously short, or perhaps famously forgiving, so every time the potential pullout time is mentioned it seems people forget that we’ve heard this all before. The perception is “okay last time was wrong, but this time we believe you!” and so another year goes past before our bellies rumble again and we get a new assurance.

I’d like to say that’s not working any more, and the poll numbers are swaying in that direction, but as long as these people are running the country, the hungry dogs are little more than a nuisance.

Two more weeks, folks.